Rounding up picks from around the country and around the beat as No. 9 Penn State prepares to host No. 19 Illinois in its Big Ten opener at Beaver Stadium.
Daniel Gallen
Penn State kicks off Big Ten play with a prime-time matchup against Illinois on Saturday in a game that looks much more intriguing now than it did a few months ago. That's because the Fighting Illini are off to a 4-0 start that has them up to No. 19 in the AP Top 25 Poll, and the Nittany Lions are off to a 3-0 start that's featured some firepower to earn a No. 9 ranking.
There will be a national television audience tuned in to NBC when the game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Beaver Stadium. And there should be a potentially raucous crowd in the stands if the Penn State fan base heeds coach James Franklin's call for "White Out… Energy."
The Nittany Lions are big favorites over the Fighting Illini. The line at sportsbooks has hovered between 17 and 18.5 points, depending on where you look. That's a large number, though Penn State is coming off a game in which it covered a seven-touchdown spread.
In surveying predictions, most observers expect Penn State to win with a two-score margin showing up one of the more common results. But Illinois is widely expected to be within striking distance, which could make for an intriguing start or finish to the game.
You can read the Lions247 expert predictions HERE. You can read the expert picks from our 247Sports colleagues at Illini Inquirer HERE.
Below, we rounded up a selection of predictions from both around the country and around the Penn State beat as the Nittany Lions attempt to move to 4-0 on the season.
Chris Hummer, 247Sports: Penn State 31, Illinois 17
Hummer's take: "That feels like a big line. Illinois is playing well. The Illini showed against Nebraska they have an offense – two good receivers, a good QB, a solid o-line and a deep stable of backs – to play with some of the better teams in the Big Ten. Do I think they upset Penn State? No, especially not on the road. But this is a much-improved Illinois team that's displayed few weaknesses early this year. Unless Luke Altmyer suddenly turns into a turnover machine, I expect Illinois to keep this respectable."
Brad Crawford, 247Sports: Penn State 27, Illinois 23
Crawford's take: "This feels like way too many points here, so I'm going with the Fighting Illini. They're not going to win the game, but this is Penn State's toughest assignment thus far and Illinois plays a brand of a football with an emphasis in physicality at the line of scrimmage that should keep this one competitive for four quarter. If the Nittany Lions win in a blowout, I'll be convinced they're a playoff team."
[247Sports]
CBS Sports
Against the spread:
- Dennis Dodd: Illinois +17.5
- Tom Fornelli: Illinois +17.5
- Chip Patterson: Illinois +17.5
- Shehan Jeyarajah: Illinois +17.5
- David Cobb: Illinois +17.5
- Jerry Palm: Illinois +17.5
- Brandon Marcello: Illinois +17.5
- Richard Johnson: Illinois +17.5
Straight up:
- Dennis Dodd: Penn State
- Tom Fornelli: Illinois
- Chip Patterson: Penn State
- Shehan Jeyarajah: Penn State
- David Cobb: Penn State
- Jerry Palm: Penn State
- Brandon Marcello: Penn State
- Richard Johnson: Penn State
USA Today:
- Scooby Axson: Penn State
- Jordan Mendoza: Penn State
- Paul Myerberg: Penn State
- Erick Smith: Penn State
- Eddie Timanus: Penn State
- Dan Wolken: Penn State
David Kenyon, Bleacher Report: Penn State 27, Illinois 19
Kenyon's take: "The simple version is Penn State has a better offense, better defense and is playing at home. But if the Illini can generate a few takeaways—and they already have 10 this season, tied for the fifth-highest total in the nation—that's the key to flipping the result."
[Bleacher Report]
Pete Fiutak, College Football News: Penn State 31, Illinois 16
Fiutak's take: "Illinois really is a good, tough team that will be a tough out. The lines will hold up, the defense will get to [Drew] Allar a bit, and it'll be a fight for a full 60 minutes. But Penn State's newfound explosion will show up when needed to take over the game in the second half. Even with the flash, it'll be the third down, move-the-chains, boring play that [gets it] done."
[College Football News]
The Athletic:
- Dan Santaromita: Illinois +18
- David Ubben: Illinois +18
- Chris Vannini: Illinois +17.5
- Austin Mock: Penn State -18
Bill Connelly's SP+: Penn State 33, Illinois 15
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 23, 2024?? WEEK 5 SP+ PICKS ??
Bama 29, UGA 26
PSU 33, Illini 15
ND 28, Louisville 22
Oregon 39, UCLA 17
Utah 33, Zona 20
Miami 38, VT 19
K-State 30, Okla St 27
Trojans 32, Badgers 22
A&M 30, Arkansas 26
Auburn 25, Oklahoma 24
Horns 47, Cowbells 11https://t.co/w7ALlZmjBl pic.twitter.com/dY4RXTt5tR
Chris Fallica, FOX Sports: Penn State -18
Fallica's take: "My tour of the Big Ten ends in State College, where the Nittany Lions are a bigger-than-expected favorite over 4-0 Illinois. This is one of those classic games that James Franklin will cover. He's 17-0-1 against the spread (ATS) since 2000 when favored between seven and 24 points. But on the field, I think they can have success throwing the ball and forcing the Illini to play from behind — something they really haven't had to do this year. Nebraska had opportunities to get a stop and get up multiple scores on the Fighting Illini but just couldn't do it. I think the talent level at Penn State is much better than that of Nebraska and expect the Nittany Lions to win by three touchdowns."
[FOX Sports]
Audrey Snyder, The Athletic: Penn State 30, Illinois 13
Snyder's take: "This one reminds me of the Iowa game last year. It was a night game, the Hawkeyes were ranked 24th at the time, and yet it never was close. Penn State's offense had arguably its best showing of the season, and the defense was superb. A similar script could unfold Saturday night under the lights."
[The Athletic]
Johnny McGonigal, PennLive: Penn State 34, Illinois 16
McGonigal's take: "The Illini are riding high after thwarting Nebraska in Lincoln last Friday, and they have their sights set on another upset. But I don't see it happening. Between Allar, Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen and Tyler Warren, Penn State has too much talent on offense. And the defense, feeding off the environment, will play inspired."
- Bob Flounders, PennLive: Penn State 27, Illinois 20
- Max Ralph, PennLive: Penn State 27, Illinois 20
- Joe Hermitt, PennLive: Penn State 27, Illinois 17
[PennLive]
Jon Sauber, Centre Daily Times: Penn State 31, Illinois 13
Sauber's take: "I know Illinois is ranked as a top-20 team in the country, but the betting spread of this game (it opened at -17.5) indicates what I believe to be true — the Nittany Lions are clearly better than the Illini. If Penn State gets an early lead, which I expect it to, then pulling away shouldn't be a problem, especially because this will be a night game in Beaver Stadium."
[Centre Daily Times]
Mark Wogenrich, Penn State on SI: Penn State 35, Illinois 27
Wogenrich's take: "While expecting Allar and [Andy] Kotelnicki to take a bow after this one, the defense raises some yellow flags. Injuries have been disruptive to the group's lineup and depth, prompting some position shifts and freshmen call-ups. The flags don't rise to red yet, primarily because its top players ([Jaylen] Reed, tackle Zane Durant, end Abdul Carter, linebacker Kobe King) are playing high-level football. But could Illinois and Altmyer exploit a few weak spots? Expect points in this game."
- Daniel Mader, Penn State on SI: Penn State 27, Illinois 13
- Sam Woloson, Penn State on SI: Penn State 30, Illinois 17
Frank Bodani, York Daily Record: Penn State 33, Illinois 15
[York Daily Record]
Seth Engle, StateCollege.com: Penn State 31, Illinois 17
Engle's take: "Kotelnicki has worked to keep each opposing defense on its toes, an essential aspect to finding a win against the Fighting Illini. Penn State was anything but explosive last season, but can rewrite the script against a ranked opponent this weekend. Illinois has been exceptional defensively, but questions remain about the durability on big pass plays. Kotelnicki should take advantage of that."
[StateCollege.com]
Daily Collegian:
- Lyle Alenstein: Penn State 34, Illinois 20
- Joel Haas: Penn State 31, Illinois 17
- Avery Hill: Penn State 28, Illinois 24
- Lexie Linderman: Penn State 21, Illinois 17
Onward State:
- Joe Lister: Penn State 31, Illinois 10
- Mitch Corcoran: Penn State 30, Illinois 15
- C.J. Doebler: Penn State 34, Illinois 13
- Nolan Wick: Penn State 34, Illinois 27
- C.J. Gill: Penn State 31, Illinois 21
- Fernando Martinez Ruiz De Esparza: Penn State 31, Illinois 20
- Aidan Conrad: Penn State 31, Illinois 6
- Jamie Lynch: Penn State 35, Illinois 16
Daniel Gallen covers Penn State for Lions247 and 247Sports. He can be reached at daniel.gallen@paramount.com. Follow Daniel on X at @danieljtgallen and Instagram at @bydanieljtgallen.
